MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharmaceutical, Blue Coat Systems and American International Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's greater growth prospects following the acquisition of Barr (NYSE: BRL). The firm raised the target to $56 from $47.
ThinkPanmure upgraded Blue Coat Systems (NASDAQ: BCSI) to Buy from Source of Funds based on the company's growth prospects following positive channel checks.
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America on valuation, as they find the risk/reward attractive at current levels.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Goldman upgraded the Semiconductor Production Equipment sector to Neutral from Cautious and added Verigy (NASDAQ: VRGY) to its Conviction Buy List.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Whole Foods (NASDAQ: WFMI) and Cintas (NASDAQ: CTAS) to Equal Weight from Underweight.
American International Group (NYSE:AIG) Raised to Buy at Banc of America, according to 24/7 Wall St. The financial news site also reports Nike (NYSE:NKE) Cut to Neutral at HSBC.
UBS upgrades AMR (NYSE:AMR) to Neutral from Sell, according to Briefing.com.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Wachovia, American International Group and BT Group were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of Wachovia (NYSE: WB) to Underperform from Perform as they believe the outlook is "bleak" for equity shareholders. The firm thinks Wachovia's expenses can't come down fast enough too offset earnings erosion.
Wachovia downgraded shares of American International Group (NYSE: AIG) to Market Perform from Outperform as they believe AIG's CDO valuations worsened in Q2, which could result in a $2B-$7B after tax "valuation adjustment." Wachovia expects the value of AIG's core insurance franchise to be obscured by its credit exposure.
Collins Stewart cut BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Hold from Buy on concerns surrounding the company's fiber network expansion.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) was downgraded to Add from Buy at WestLB; the firm also lowered Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) to Hold from Buy and Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE: ALU) to Sell from Hold.
Third Wave (NASDAQ: TWTI) was cut to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank.
AT&T (NYSE: T) was removed from Goldman's Conviction Buy List.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says our problems are so widespread, he sees lots more IndyMacs before we're out.
You don't need me to tell you it's awful out there. You don't need me to tell you that there's no quick fix for any of these things. But what might help you understand why it feels so bad this time is that I have never, in my career, seen so many companies go off track at the same time. This is one unbelievable moment, and it is made more horrible by the day as companies' stocks just get pummeled, causing people to then question the very viability of the companies involved.
First, obviously, are Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) (Cramer's Take) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) (Cramer's Take). We don't know what will happen, but we do know that their futures are much darker than their pasts. Their best hope: a Democrat becomes president and shows the usual love to both. But as investments, they are pretty much perma-losers going forward. The losses are that heavy. Yes, it is true that two years from now they will be better, but will the government let them limp through to that? View them as calls on a Democratic win.
We all know that Citigroup (NYSE: C) (Cramer's Take), Wachovia (NYSE: WB) (Cramer's Take), Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM) (Cramer's Take) and National City (NYSE: NCC) (Cramer's Take) are in trouble. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) (Cramer's Take) says it isn't in trouble, but obviously the market doesn't believe management because the stock failed to rally when it said its dividend was safe. Any short-selling hedge fund could hire 30 actors and have them line up at a Washington Mutual or two and get a bank run going. Then we would have to hear about a "hasty" Treasury department plan to bail out WM. Hasty? How can these guys not see it coming?
Genentech Inc. (NYSE: DNA) said Monday its profit rose 5% on sales of its blockbuster cancer drugs to $782 million, or 73 cents per share. Excluding charges, the company earned 82 cents per share. Revenue rose 8% to just under $3.24 billion. The results did not meet analysts expectations, according to Thomson Financial, expected profit of 86 cents per share on revenue of $3.23 billion. The biotechnology company raised its full-year outlook on expectations for additional sales gains, allowing shares to trade 1.4% higher in premarket action.
The downgrades in financials continue. While Wachovia itself has been hit with downgrades two days in a row now,it cut AIG (NYSE: AIG) stock to Market Perform from Outperform. AIG shares are declining over 6.3% in premarket trading.
Staying with financials, the faith of Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) is all but certain these days. LEH shares plunged some 40% in the past five days alone (81% yea-to-date) following speculation about clients leaving and a reported search for new strategic options. But can Lehman find any bidders? With employees controlling around 30% of the stock this would be a more difficult deal than usual. But as Lehman is being compared lately to Bear Stearns, the brokerage firm may not have much choice. LEH shares are declining yet another 2.4% in premarket trading after sinking over 14% Monday.
The market for private mortgage insurance has narrowed and is tougher to obtain, further pressuring home buyers and affecting the market, the Wall Street Journal reported. "Clearly, the pendulum had swung a little too far in terms of flexibility in underwriting," said Len Sweeney, the chief risk officer at AIG United Guaranty, a part of American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG).
In a agreement with Viacom Inc (NYSE: VIA), Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) said it will remove visitor data from YouTube before it fulfills a judge's order to send data to Viacom, as a part of a larger copyright lawsuit, the Wall Street Journal reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
As part of its effort to emerge from bankruptcy protection, the Detroit News reported that Delphi Corp (OTC: DPHIQ) announced plans to sell its brake business. Delphi has retained W.Y. Campbell and Co to help sell the unit, which has around 1,000 employees worldwide.
The New York Post learned that Dick Fuld, the CEO of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH), is seriously considering ways to take the company private. The Post said that talks centering on the privatization of Lehman have "gotten very serious consideration," according to sources, although details on how a maneuver may work remain unclear.
Wachovia downgraded AIG (NYSE:AIG) to "market perform" from "outperform", according toBriefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheiner downgraded Wachovia (NYSE:WB) to "under-perform" from "market perform".
AT&T (NYSE:T) maintained Buy but Removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs according to247wallst.com. The financial website also reports that Motorola (NYSE:MOT) Started as Sell at Societe Generale
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says he has no confidence in these hated names, and neither should you.
The financials are flying -- there are finally bids for most of them underneath. Many, including Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), are running. What a great time to put the negative cards on the table and put the negatives in perspective. That's right, let's look at the financial Achilles' heels. What could go wrong? In other words, here's the companion piece to Doug Kass' positive conversion. Here's what I am worried about even as Doug thinks everyone's too worried and the bottom is being put in.
To get started, let's look at what's not causing the endless declines in the stocks -- don't worry, we will get to the financial dirty dozen when I finish this preamble.
First, it ain't earnings. Earnings aren't going to be that great. But that's why the S&P is at 14 times. It can go to 12 or 11, or most likely stays at 13-14, but the E goes down (earnings).
Second, it ain't oil. The stocks sensitive to the increase in oil have room to go down, but the price of oil is being factored in slowly but surely.
Third, it isn't inflation or recession. Those two are being baked in each day.
There ought to be a law. That would be legislation which limits what public company CEOs get when they are fired. Maybe the limit should be $1 million. How much is failure really worth?
The departing head of American International Group (NYSE: AIG), Martin Sullivan, will pick up $47 million as he hits that door. According to the FT, "Mr Sullivan's departure was deemed a resignation for "good reason", according to AIG." His "good reason" was that the board would not allow him to stay in the building. What better excuse can a man get?
Sullivan can hardly be blamed for taking the money and retiring about his yacht to hit golf balls into the ocean. The AIG board shoulders that burden. The chairman of that board, Robert Willumstad, took Sullivan's job. Maybe it was easier to move up to CEO with Sullivan fat and happy.
But, there ought to be a law.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
No matter what any CEO, analyst, "guru", "market expert", strategist, fund manager, trader or message board poster says (few show all their trades and investments like me, nor are they up 60% in 2008, see details here), never try to catch a falling knife. Before I list all the current ones, I really have to pound it into your heads that buying these things in hugely uncertain -- and possibly disastrous -- times like these is not only dangerous, it's just plain irresponsible.
Now, I don't want to hear those "I'm a long-term investor in blue-chip stocks" and "these are quality companies trading at discount prices"-type comments. While it's possible these stocks will bounce, the risk-reward ratio is downright awful here, just as its been for the past several months (as I've been warning in posts like this and this).
U.S. futures were mixed to lower early Friday morning, a day after stock markets sold off, ending at their lowest level in nearly two years. Still, with oil prices reaching another record in Asia, it's questionable whether stocks could indeed stage a recovery.
On Thursday, U.S. stocks sank to lows not seen in nearly two years after Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) downgraded investment banks including Citigroup (NYSE: C) and General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) to Sell and as Wall Street was also worried about the outlook for tech stocks as both RIM (NASDAQ: RIMM) and Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) reported quarterly results Wednesday, giving a tepid outlook. Topping it all were oil prices reaching $140 a barrel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 358 points, or 3.03%, the S&P 500 lost 38 points, or 2.94%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 79 points, or 3.33%.
Usually, a day after such a selloff, buyers tend to come in, this morning we also woke up to news that oil prices climbed to a record above $141 a barrel in Asian trading, which may dampen the mood on Wall Street again. Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose as high as $141.71 a barrel before pulling back to $141.10. The previous trading record for a front-month contract was $139.89, set on June 16.
The Wall Street Journal's "The Game" column speculates that one of the results of the Bear Stearns crash could be the push of investment banks and commercial ones closer together, which could result in better handling of volatility with more stability. Some observers think Merrill Lynch & Co (NYSE: MER), Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) or The Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) could go that route by buying a commercial bank. Any move would force them to adhere to better reserve ratios, affect short term bank funding, and shrink balance sheets.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) will soon make available a new service that measure hits on the Internet with the intent of helping advertisers decide where to buy ads online and would directly compete with comScore Inc (NASDAQ: SCOR) and Nielsen Online. Ad executives said Google's method could make targeting markets more efficient.
A Manhattan judge dismissed four claims made by American International Group Inc (NYSE: AIG) in its fight to regain control of a block of its shares held by Starr International, a company that once founded a lucrative compensation plan for AIG executives. AIG believes the shares held by Starr should continue to be used to fund employee compensation, the Financial Times reported.
WEB SITES:
According to Scorpio Partnership, Bloomberg reported that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) and Merrill Lynch had slower growth in assets under management last year due to losses connected to the U.S. subprime crisis.
And you thought it was all over. Well, you weren't alone. Many bank executives thought the same thing, that we've seen the worst of the writedowns banks were taking as a result of the subprime mortgage collapse.
So when today Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), the bank responsible for 10% of the total writedowns due to the subprime and credit crisis, announced it "would suffer more "substantial" write-downs on debt investments in the second quarter," many were taken aback. Sure, the CFO said that sequentially, Citi would write down less than in the first quarter, but he also said the marks are "sizable" and gave the impression they will likely go into the next few quarters. Credit markets remain tight, he said.
Perhaps we've seen the worst, if I insist on being optimistic, but we surely haven't seen the last. Just in the past week we heard from Lehman (NYSE: LEH), AIG (NYSE: AIG), UBS (NYSE: UBS) and Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB). We heard of writedowns, asset sales and capital raises, none of which gave much confidence about financials and the credit markets, but there was the lingering hope we were seeing the last few hiccups (large as they were).
Still, people remained cautious and I didn't hear pounding the table to get into bank stocks, although no one could deny that some financials saw some recovery since mid-March. It was also somewhat puzzling that Citi managed to raise just over a month ago some $4.5 billion from its public offering. Meaning, there were buyers at $25 and change. The stock closed at $20.17 today after dipping to $19.41 earlier in the session.
OK, so I know we're supposed to be forward looking when investing, but there are some stocks in some sectors I simply wouldn't touch. Not all of them, of course. I'd much rather take my chances with Goldman (NYSE: GS).
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) shares are trading higher today after Citigroup upgraded the stock to "Buy" from "Hold," adding in a note that AIG is poised for well over 35% upside within the following year. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AIG.
After hitting a one-year high of $72.75 last June, the stock hit a one-year low of $31.05 yesterday. AIG opened this morning at $32.38. So far today the stock has hit a low of $31.97 and a high of $32.52. As of 12:00, AIG is trading at $32.37, up 0.85 (2.7%). The chart for AIG looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just four weeks as long as AIG is above $25 at July expiration. AIG would have to fall by more than 23% before we would start to lose money.
AIG hasn't been below $31 at all in the past year but has broken below support levels recently. This trade could be risky if the financial markets continue to nose-dive, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the fact that its next earnings are not scheduled until August, which is after expiration of the trade above.
Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AIG.
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MOST NOTEWORTHY: Teva Pharmaceutical, Blue Coat Systems and American International Group were today's noteworthy upgrades:
No matter what any CEO, analyst, "guru", "market expert", strategist, fund manager, trader or message board poster says (few show all their trades and investments like me, nor are they up 60% in 2008, see details .gif){kind=logo}
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